El Nino to Strengthen Further Before December Peak, UN Weather Agency Warns

The United Nations has issued a stark warning that the El Nino climate pattern is poised to intensify over the coming weeks before reaching its apex in December, potentially making it the most powerful such event recorded since at least 1950. In its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the World Meteorological Organization cautioned that the phenomenon will drive up temperatures across much of the world while rearranging established rainfall patterns, heightening the danger of both drought and flooding in different parts of the globe.

The alert, published Thursday, underscores how El Nino is compounding the warming already being caused by human activity and greenhouse gas emissions. According to the WMO, the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific has moved from a firmly established phase into one that is now strengthening at speed. "El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated, adding that the agency's projections point to a near-certainty that the event will persist through February 2027.

That persistence, Saulo noted, raises the prospect of El Nino ranking among the most intense episodes observed in at least seven decades. The forecast underpinning the warning is not the product of a single model but rather a consensus drawn from 13 leading national and international meteorological centres, giving the projection considerable scientific weight. The WMO stressed that sea-surface temperatures across the central-eastern tropical Pacific are expected to climb to unprecedented levels during the October-November-December period, with the ensuing weather disruption set to reverberate through economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide.

To grasp the scale of what is unfolding, it helps to understand the mechanics of the phenomenon itself. El Nino is the warm phase of a natural cycle that sees surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become hotter than usual. That extra heat reshapes winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall far beyond the ocean basin, generating knock-on effects on every continent. The cycle alternates with its counterpart, La Nina, a cooling phase, with stretches of neutral conditions in between. Historically, El Nino recurs roughly every two to seven years and typically endures for nine to 12 months.

The numbers behind the current event are striking. An index that tracks how far sea-surface temperatures deviate from the norm across the equatorial Pacific at the heart of El Nino stood at 1.6 degrees Celsius above average in June. By August, that gap had widened to 2.5 degrees above normal. For the coming October-November-December window, forecasters expect the anomaly to surge to roughly 3.7 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. If confirmed, that would eclipse the previous record of 2.6 degrees set during the 2015-2016 event, making it the highest reading since systematic observations began.

Saulo was careful to explain the physics behind the temperature spike, noting that El Nino does not manufacture new heat for the planet. Instead, it redistributes warmth that the ocean has been hoarding, releasing stored energy back into the atmosphere. The critical difference this time around, she emphasised, is the sheer quantity of heat available. The ocean being tapped is the warmest ever measured by scientists, meaning there is simply more energy waiting to be vented into the global climate system.

That context matters because the world is already confronting record-breaking heat. The previous El Nino helped push 2023 to become the second-hottest year ever registered, while 2024 set a new all-time record at approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. Against that backdrop, another powerful El Nino risks nudging global averages even higher and eroding the narrow margins left before international climate targets are breached.

Timing is another factor complicating the outlook. Although El Nino events usually crest sometime between November and February, the corresponding surge in global temperatures generally arrives with a lag, meaning the fullest consequences may not become apparent until well into 2027. That delay could leave governments and relief agencies responding to heat impacts long after the oceanic signal has peaked.

The damage is already being felt in vulnerable regions. Central America has been hit particularly hard, where prolonged dry conditions linked to El Nino are killing livestock and destroying crops. Panama and El Salvador have been forced to declare emergencies over the drought, while a rare succession of cyclones across the Pacific has likewise been attributed to the unusually warm ocean waters generated by this event.

For agriculture-dependent economies, the combination of failed harvests and water shortages threatens food supplies and livelihoods. Drought-fuelled wildfire risk, strain on hydroelectric power generation and disruption to shipping routes on major rivers are among the additional pressures forecasters anticipate as the phenomenon gathers strength over the next two months.

The WMO's message is ultimately one of preparation. By convening dozens of forecasters and issuing projections months in advance, the agency hopes to give national authorities, farmers, disaster response teams and humanitarian organisations a window to act before conditions deteriorate further. With the anomaly predicted to break records and the event likely to last into early 2027, the coming weeks will be critical for planning.

As Saulo's comments made clear, the extra heat stored in the oceans ensures that the natural rhythm of El Nino is now playing out on a stage that has been artificially warmed by decades of carbon emissions. The result is a phenomenon that, while natural in origin, is arriving with a ferocity that the modern world has never before had to navigate.

*(FRANCE 24 with AFP)*