Addis Ababa points finger at Eritrea and Sudan as Tigray rebels drive into Afar

ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia's military leadership on Sunday accused Eritrea and Sudan of propping up armed groups battling federal forces, as renewed fighting between government troops and the Tigray People's Liberation Front escalated across the country's northern reaches. The allegations, made publicly by army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, mark a sharp diplomatic escalation just as rebel fighters are making their deepest territorial gains since the 2022 peace deal.

The TPLF has spent the past days seizing airports and striking into the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions, declaring that it is engaged in a "defensive war" against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Rebel commanders have linked up with seven armed groups operating elsewhere in the country, a configuration analysts say closely mirrors the opening phase of the last conflict, when the TPLF pushed south through Amhara in a march on the capital.

Humanitarian sources reported Sunday that the border town of Erebti in Afar, close to the Tigray frontier, fell to the rebels after sustained shelling by heavy artillery. The same source said the TPLF was then pushing toward the town of Afdeera, roughly 100 kilometres to the east. Precise casualty and territorial figures remain difficult to verify.

The fighting has already triggered a large displacement emergency. A humanitarian source estimated that at least 150,000 people have been uprooted within Afar, while cautioning that an accurate count was not yet possible. Such figures, if confirmed, would make this one of the fastest displacement surges of the renewed fighting.

Jula, who has used the army's YouTube channel to spell out the government's case, said Ethiopia's forces were "fighting forces that are organised and allied to serve the interests of external forces." He went further, arguing that neither Eritrea — which he referred to by its Tigrinya name, Shaebia — nor the TPLF could make progress on its own without backing, support and supplies from Sudan, Egypt and other foreign powers. The statement is significant because it frames the conflict as a proxy war rather than a purely domestic one, and it signals that Addis Ababa is laying the groundwork for wider international involvement.

The rebel advance into Afar appears designed as much for economic as military effect. The offensive threatens the corridor running from the port of Djibouti, which handles nearly all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo, including fuel. Cutting that artery would squeeze the federal government's access to foreign exchange and imported supplies — a tactic that would be felt far beyond the battlefield.

Civilians and media workers have also been caught in the violence. The headquarters of Tigrai TV, regarded as the principal outlet of the rebel administration in Mekelle, was hit by a drone on Sunday. A journalist at the station, speaking on condition of anonymity, described hearing a powerful explosion from another location and fleeing the building. Photographs taken by a local journalist showed a blackened facade with numerous windows blown out. Another journalist said the station, which employs around 400 people, went off air following the attack; no casualty figures were immediately available.

The broadcast attack came days after the federal government said on September 21 that Tigrai TV had been suspended "indefinitely," and moved to ban other outlets from carrying the channel's reports. The targeting of a news organisation already silenced by administrative decision has drawn concern about the narrowing of space for independent reporting in an area where civilians are bearing the brunt of the fighting.

Information from Tigray itself has been severely curtailed. Telecommunications providers reported major disruption to phone and internet services beginning Friday, hampering verification of events on the ground. Many residents fear a repetition of the blockade imposed during the 2020-2022 war, when electricity, banking services and almost all humanitarian aid were cut off for extended periods.

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres voiced alarm on Friday, with a spokesman saying the secretary-general was "particularly troubled by reports of the use of drones as well as incidents of harm to civilians." The remark underscores international concern that the renewed conflict could escalate into a wider aerial campaign against population centres.

On paper, the federal government retains overwhelming advantages: a large arsenal of drones, an estimated half a million troops, and substantial external support, notably from the United Arab Emirates. Analysts caution, however, that such material superiority has not prevented the TPLF from achieving tactical surprise, using dispersed alliances and rapid strikes to stretch federal forces across multiple fronts.

Neighbouring Eritrea could be drawn into the war on the rebel side, according to the reporting. Landlocked, Eritrea is believed to fear that a stronger Addis Ababa is planning eventually to seize a direct outlet to the Red Sea, a strategic prize that would reshape the Horn of Africa's trade routes.

The backdrop to all of this is the 2020-2022 civil war between the TPLF and the federal government, which killed roughly 600,000 people and was marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence. The TPLF governed Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018, when Abiy's rise to power sidelined it. The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022, brokered by African institutions and Washington, held until last year but was never fully implemented, leaving around one million people unable to return to their homes.

Since then, sporadic clashes have resumed, with federal forces launching repeated drone strikes inside Tigray and massing troops along the border. Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed hostilities. With the government enjoying a decisive edge in firepower and manpower, and the rebels holding the initiative on the ground, the coming weeks will determine whether the conflict stays regional or spirals into another full-scale confrontation — with civilians in Tigray, Afar and Amhara bearing the heaviest cost.